Hi, em…this is…weird. I’m the author of this article, and I’m coming from the future to tell you that… ahem… it’s been slightly outdated in just a few hours. If you want to know the latest news (for now) on Trump’s tariff war, we told you about it in “Trump’s tariffs are back and bring (once again) uncertainty to global eCommerce”
It has been some time since the normal passage of time has gone to h***. Gone with the wind, as they say where I live.
News that was destined to cause a severe (very severe) impact on the global economy, affecting the lives of millions of people and businesses from Reykjavik to Manila, lasts barely the time it takes a hummingbird to beat its wings (12.5 milliseconds, according to Gemini).
This happens with AIs, for example. The speed at which innovations in this field emerge is accelerating so much that a humble servant (who believes he is relatively informed about what is happening in the world of artificial intelligence) no longer knows if upon opening ChatGPT, he will find model 4O mini or the o4-mini-high, if the new version of Grok is better than the latest Claude, or if Suno serves to create music or is the brand of vacuum cleaner you purchased a few days ago on Amazon.
But it happens with many more things. Like with the trade war.
Trump’s tariffs are back to square one. Or almost. So you can forget about everything we have talked about in recent months regarding them and their impact on eCommerce. Or not, because they might return.
Another plot twist.
And so, time and time again.
A federal court in New York has blocked the global tariffs imposed in April by Donald Trump, which represents a significant setback for his economic policy. The United States Court of International Trade ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs (do you remember his “freedom day” image holding a board with tariffs?) without Congress’s consent under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Thus, most of Trump’s tariffs would be halted if the ruling is confirmed: Trump’s 30% tariffs on China, his 25% tariffs on some products imported from Mexico and Canada, and the universal 10% tariffs on most products entering the United States, as well as additional country-specific tariffs. Others, like the 25% tariffs on cars, auto parts, steel, or aluminum, will remain in effect.
This is a significant obstacle for the president’s protectionist approach, which had justified the tariffs as a response to economic and security threats, including drug trafficking and illegal immigration. Of course, the White House has responded quickly, announcing its intention to appeal the decision. In fact, the court has granted a period of 10 days for the administration to halt the tariffs, although the situation will remain uncertain as the appeal process continues.
Of course, the cancellation of these tariffs is good news for both European, and global eCommerce. As we explained in “Trump’s tariffs impact global eCommerce”, the tariff war in which the American president had engaged us was destined to harm all kinds of businesses, from the most local to the most transnational.
For instance, the Spanish digital economy was preparing for an extremely complex scenario. It was anticipated that the tariffs imposed by the United States on the European Union would redefine the rules of the game for Spanish eCommerce. Thus, it had been foreseen that the Spanish export sector would be one of the most affected. Key industries such as fashion, food and beverages, especially wines and oils, would see an increase in their operating costs. This was believed to diminish their competitiveness against U.S. products or products from countries with more advantageous tariff agreements.
The situation also seemed complicated for Spanish sellers marketing Chinese products in the United States. They would face tariffs of up to 54%, forcing them to raise prices or absorb a drastic cut in their margins. This was feared to threaten the sustainability of their businesses and complicate customs logistics.
In the United States, the measure aimed to protect local production, but it could also generate collateral effects. The dependence of U.S. eCommerce on imports to maintain diversity and competitive prices was thought to lead platforms like Amazon or Walmart to face lower margins and, consequently, increased prices for the end consumer. Something that particularly harmed low-priced product sellers and actually led Amazon Haul to radically change its philosophy or forced Chinese-origin companies to circumvent their logistics strategy to avoid those tariffs.
Fortunately, these consequences, at least in the expected magnitude, are on hold.
For now.
In terms of economic impact, the news caused a positive reaction in global markets, with a rise in stock prices in Asia and a strengthening of the United States dollar against other currencies.
However, all this uncertainty, all this string of comings and goings on fundamental aspects for the global economy is terrible, and I fear it will not improve during the remaining years of Trump’s term. Until recently, stability, legal security, and certainty about the legal framework were considered basic for doing business. For making mid-term projects. For planning expansions into new markets, hiring new employees, purchasing new equipment. It was an argument with which the great magnates and gigantic corporations pressured governments that wanted to minimally alter the status quo.
That it is precisely a businessman like Trump who has turned the global economy into a succession of unexpected plot twists is, at the very least, paradoxical.
Image: ChatGPT
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